30D PnL
+$218,386.007D PnL
+$30,184.00
+5.8%
30D PnL
+$218,386.00
+5.5%
60D PnL
+$183,962.00
+5.3%
Max Drawdown
0.2%
Trades
2007
Markets
259
Median Entry Decay
—
Liquidity
MEDIUM
Recent performance
Built from every real closed position on Polymarket - wins and losses both included, nothing filtered out. Verify on Polymarket
Category exposure
Not available yet for real traders - needs per-market category tags.
Open positions (51)
| Market | Outcome | Entry | Current | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 83¢ | 88¢ | $65,697.02 | +5.3% |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? | No | 91¢ | 91¢ | $46,254.89 | -0.4% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 86¢ | $18,638.18 | -2.3% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $17,998.95 | +1.2% |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement? | Yes | 95¢ | 96¢ | $15,964.33 | +1.4% |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement? | Yes | 94¢ | 89¢ | $13,297.50 | -5.8% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 22¢ | 22¢ | $8,385.28 | -0.1% |
| Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 98¢ | $7,817.51 | +1.0% |
| Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $6,650.23 | +0.2% |
| Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | 62¢ | 63¢ | $6,527.78 | +1.5% |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 91¢ | $5,672.85 | -2.2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $5,091.30 | +0.7% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 64¢ | 74¢ | $3,675.01 | +14.8% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? | No | 87¢ | 94¢ | $3,021.55 | +7.5% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $2,835.36 | -0.5% |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 96¢ | 96¢ | $2,624.11 | +0.1% |
| Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? | No | 75¢ | 96¢ | $2,387.51 | +27.3% |
| Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by October 31? | No | 93¢ | 94¢ | $2,347.50 | +1.0% |
| Plague case in US by December 31? | No | 85¢ | 93¢ | $1,675.27 | +8.8% |
| Hurupay FDV above $10M one day after launch? | No | 74¢ | 97¢ | $1,385.48 | +30.5% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $1,373.25 | +0.1% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2? | Yes | 10¢ | 10¢ | $1,102.99 | +2.0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 98¢ | $1,058.30 | +7.6% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | Yes | 12¢ | 12¢ | $759.69 | -3.3% |
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Yes | 18¢ | 18¢ | $688.73 | -0.4% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | Yes | 6¢ | 8¢ | $600.44 | +34.0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027? | Yes | 38¢ | 38¢ | $598.90 | -0.4% |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | No | 82¢ | 95¢ | $575.40 | +15.2% |
| Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31? | No | 80¢ | 80¢ | $556.85 | -0.6% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027? | Yes | 54¢ | 52¢ | $549.84 | -3.2% |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | No | 17¢ | 24¢ | $502.96 | +39.8% |
| Hurupay FDV above $5M one day after launch? | No | 70¢ | 97¢ | $489.16 | +38.9% |
| UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? | No | 84¢ | 94¢ | $472.00 | +12.4% |
| Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? | No | 84¢ | 90¢ | $306.00 | +7.1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027? | Yes | 42¢ | 44¢ | $268.64 | +4.2% |
| Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 95¢ | $237.50 | +9.2% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 62¢ | 64¢ | $183.55 | +3.2% |
| Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 42¢ | 64¢ | $138.52 | +54.0% |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | $80.80 | +10.0% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | 96¢ | 97¢ | $20.95 | +1.0% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | No | 72¢ | 91¢ | $18.10 | +25.7% |
| UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026? | No | 87¢ | 95¢ | $7.31 | +9.3% |
| Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 16¢ | 12¢ | $6.46 | -28.9% |
| Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate? | No | 68¢ | 68¢ | $4.88 | +1.3% |
| Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? | No | 70¢ | 94¢ | $4.70 | +34.3% |
| Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? | No | 69¢ | 76¢ | $2.45 | +10.1% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 62¢ | 13¢ | $0.63 | -79.8% |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | $0.21 | +0.5% |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? | No | 65¢ | 76¢ | $0.18 | +16.8% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 95¢ | 98¢ | $0.11 | +2.3% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Yes | 30¢ | 26¢ | $0.04 | -15.0% |
Closed positions
50 won, 8 lost over the last 90 days (real total - only the 25 most recent show below)
| Market | Outcome | Entry | Closed | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? | No | 67¢ | Jan 1, 12:00 AM | -$8.11 |
| Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 23¢ | Jan 1, 12:00 AM | -$25.41 |
| Trump renames AI by December 31? | No | 2¢ | Jan 1, 12:00 AM | -$15.23 |
| Trump renames AI by October 31? | No | 2¢ | Nov 1, 12:00 AM | -$11.26 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 22¢ | Oct 20, 09:56 PM | +$6,719.78 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 12¢ | Oct 20, 07:54 PM | +$8,318.70 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | Yes | 8¢ | Oct 20, 07:33 PM | +$4,752.46 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? | No | 8¢ | Oct 16, 12:00 AM | -$31.56 |
| Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? | Yes | 25¢ | Oct 15, 03:10 PM | +$6,577.57 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | No | 39¢ | Oct 15, 12:38 PM | +$3,906.71 |
| Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 10¢ | Oct 13, 06:12 PM | +$18,033.50 |
| Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 15¢ | Oct 13, 05:41 PM | +$9,644.82 |
| Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 12¢ | Oct 13, 12:44 PM | +$4,913.24 |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement? | No | 13¢ | Oct 13, 11:54 AM | +$5,045.66 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 82¢ | Oct 12, 04:22 PM | +$26,163.05 |
| Will the Greenland agreement text be released by September 23, 2026? (copy) (copy) | No | 60¢ | Oct 1, 12:00 AM | -$0.81 |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 0¢ | Oct 1, 12:00 AM | -$0.08 |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 45¢ | Sep 30, 12:00 AM | -$356.67 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 87¢ | Sep 16, 09:40 PM | +$29,728.62 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | Yes | 17¢ | Sep 9, 02:37 PM | +$51,868.65 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | Sep 4, 09:10 PM | +$4,852.36 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 95¢ | Aug 31, 12:29 PM | +$3,886.42 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | Yes | 68¢ | Aug 6, 10:32 PM | +$3,892.31 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | 9¢ | Aug 4, 06:19 PM | +$5,270.02 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | No | 16¢ | Jul 29, 08:07 PM | +$19,969.81 |
Investment calculator
What following this trader could have looked like - and what it might look like going forward.
If you'd invested this, then...
7D
$1,058.00
+5.8%
30D
$1,055.00
+5.5%
60D
$1,053.00
+5.3%
Based on this trader's own real realized ROI over each period. Historical simulation, not a real user's result - past performance doesn't guarantee future returns.